JOM KITA KE POLITEKNIK

Thresholds for ecological responses to global change do not emerge from empirical data (Record no. 2005)

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100 10 - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Hillebrand, Helmut
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Title Thresholds for ecological responses to global change do not emerge from empirical data
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Date of publication, distribution, etc. 2020-11-01.
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General note /pmc/articles/PMC7614041/
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General note /pubmed/32807945
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Summary, etc. To understand ecosystem responses to anthropogenic global change, a prevailing framework is the definition of threshold levels of pressure, above which response magnitudes and their variances increase disproportionately. However, we lack systematic quantitative evidence as to whether empirical data allow definition of such thresholds. Here, we summarize 36 meta-analyses measuring more than 4,600 global change impacts on natural communities. We find that threshold transgressions were rarely detectable, either within or across meta-analyses. Instead, ecological responses were characterized mostly by progressively increasing magnitude and variance when pressure increased. Sensitivity analyses with modelled data revealed that minor variances in the response are sufficient to preclude the detection of thresholds from data, even if they are present. The simulations reinforced our contention that global change biology needs to abandon the general expectation that system properties allow defining thresholds as a way to manage nature under global change. Rather, highly variable responses, even under weak pressures, suggest that 'safe-operating spaces' are unlikely to be quantifiable.
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Language note en
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Topical term or geographic name as entry element Article
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Genre/form data or focus term Text
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700 10 - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Donohue, Ian
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700 10 - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Harpole, W. Stanley
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700 10 - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Hodapp, Dorothee
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Personal name Kucera, Michal
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Personal name Lewandowska, Aleksandra M.
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Personal name Merder, Julian
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Personal name Montoya, Jose M.
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700 10 - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Freund, Jan A.
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786 0# - DATA SOURCE ENTRY
Note Nat Ecol Evol
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Uniform Resource Identifier <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41559-020-1256-9">http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41559-020-1256-9</a>
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