000			03458 am a22002413u 4500
042			_adc
100	1	0	_aHébert, R. _eauthor _93024
700	1	0	_aHerzschuh, U. _eauthor _93025
700	1	0	_aLaepple, T. _eauthor _93026
245	0	0	_aMillennial-scale climate variability over land overprinted by ocean temperature fluctuations
260			_c2022-11.
500			_a/pmc/articles/PMC7614181/
500			_a/pubmed/36817575
520			_aVariations in regional temperature have widespread implications for society, but our understanding of the amplitude and origin of long-term natural variability is insufficient for accurate regional projections. This is especially the case for terrestrial temperature variability, which is currently thought to be weak over long timescales. By performing spectral analysis on climate reconstructions, produced using sedimentary pollen records from the Northern Hemisphere over the last 8,000 years, coupled with instrumental data, we provide a comprehensive estimate of regional temperature variability from annual to millennial timescales. We show that short-term random variations are overprinted by strong ocean-driven climate variability on multi-decadal and longer timescales. This may cause substantial and potentially unpredictable regional climatic shifts in the coming century, in contrast to the relatively muted and homogeneous warming projected by climate models. Due to the marine influence, regions characterized by stable oceanic climate at sub-decadal timescales experience stronger long-term variability, and continental regions with higher sub-decadal variability show weaker long-term variability. This fundamental relationship between the timescales provides a unique insight into the emergence of a marine-driven low-frequency regime governing terrestrial climate variability and sets the basis to project the amplitude of temperature fluctuations on multi-decadal timescales and longer.
540			_a
540			_ahttps://www.springernature.com/gp/open-research/policies/accepted-manuscript-termsUsers may view, print, copy, and download text and data-mine the content in such documents, for the purposes of academic research, subject always to the full Conditions of use: https://www.springernature.com/gp/open-research/policies/accepted-manuscript-terms
540			_ahttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
546			_aen
690			_aArticle
655	7		_aText _2local
786	0		_nNat Geosci
856	4	1	_uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-01056-4 _zConnect to this object online.
999			_c2400 _d2400